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Analisa Teknikal & Fundamental, Renungan Strategi & Psikologi Trading

Hindari Kesalahan dengan Game Plan yang Jelas dan Sederhana

Kadang kita khilaf atau melakukan kesalahan konyol di saat yang seharusnya tidak boleh ada kesalahan. Atlet dalam suatu perlombaan, seorang trader yang sedang trading, seorang dokter yang sedang melakukan pembedahan, dan lain-lain. Kesalahan-kesalahan konyol, hal-hal sepele, yang menyebabkan kegagalan yang fatal.

Mungkin penyebabnya berhubungan dengan hasil riset yang saya baca di Science Daily edisi hari ini:

Thinking too much about what you are doing, because you are worried about losing the lead (as in Norman’s case) or worrying about failing in general, can lead to “paralysis by analysis.” In a nutshell, paralysis by analysis occurs when people try to control every aspect of what they are doing in an attempt to ensure success.

Psikolog di University of Chicago menemukan penyebab dan cara menghindari "choking" di saat-saat penting.

Khusus pada situasi seorang trader, kesalahan-kesalahan yang dapat terjadi antara lain sebagai berikut:

  • Salah melihat timeframe. Game plan yang mensyaratkan melakukan buy bila terjadi breakout pada, misalnya, EMA(20) di timeframe M15, tapi seorang trader terburu-buru melakukan buy karena melihat sudah terjadi breakout EMA(20). Namun lupa melihat bahwa grafik yang sedang dilihatnya ternyata bukan grafik M15, tetapi H1. Lebih parah lagi kalau salah pair: yang dilihat breakout di grafik EURUSD, tapi malah buy di GBPUSD. Atau lebih parah lagi: salah menekan tombol buy, padahal semestinya sell. Hehehe.. 😀
  • Terlalu banyak analisis. Hal ini paling sering dialami oleh seorang trader yang tidak memiliki game plan yang spesifik. Setiap kali hendak trading, yang dilakukannya adalah melakukan free-style analysis, analisis gaya bebas. Seringkali disebut gaya trading yang “full discretionary“. Suatu ketika digunakan analisa Fibonacci. Di saat lain digunakan analisa support/resistance. Di lain kesempatan digunakan indikator-indikator. Kadang-kadang menggunakan analisa Elliott Wave. Bagi trader yang seperti ini, ada saatnya akan mengalami ‘Analysis Paralysis‘. Terlalu banyak tools yang digunakan, akhirnya malah bingung, mau buy atau sell. Bila trader tersebut merasa harus ada trade yang diambil, maka akhirnya asal pilih saja, buy atau sell dengan ‘gut feeling‘ alias dengan insting. Jangan sampai begitu deh.. 😦
  • Terlupa salah satu butir dari game plan nya. Hal ini sering dialami seorang trader yang memiliki game plan yang terlalu rumit, terlalu banyak check-list nya. Seringkali setelah suatu trade ditutup dengan kerugian, barulah trader tersebut menyadari ternyata ada satu hal dalam game plan nya yang terlewati. Misalnya seharusnya memperhatikan trend di time frame yang lebih besar, tapi terlupakan, hanya melihat signal di time frame kecil saja, sehingga akhirnya mengambil keputusan yang salah, mengambil arah trade yang melawan trend.

Jadi sudah semestinya lah seorang trader memiliki game plan yang jelas, sederhana, dengan tahap-tahap pengambilan keputusan yang dapat dengan mudah diingat. Hal ini akan menghindarkan seorang trader dari kerugian akibat kesalahan-kesalahan sepele yang semestinya dapat dihindari.

Good luck! 🙂

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Will Never Trade My View/ Opinion/ Feeling

“I will only trade my plan. will never trade my view/opinion/feeling.” Begitu saya tulis di twitter saya malam ini.

Yup! Market FX sering kali menunjukkan perilaku yang sangat menggoda. Kadang berupa bentuk-bentuk pattern yang tiba-tiba terlihat sangat ‘directional‘. Atau kadang ‘menunjukkan’ akan mengarah ke arah tertentu di saat volatilitas sedang meningkat karena adanya rilis data. Hal-hal seperti ini sangat menggoda. Menggoda untuk melakukan keputusan trading di luar Trading Plan kita, di luar Trading Rules yang telah kita sepakati untuk dijalankan. Rasanya tiba-tiba yakin, “Kayaknya EURUSD akan gerak ke atas nih.” Lalu tergoda klik-klik-klik, lalu open new trade, dan seterusnya, melakukan transaksi di luar Trading Plan kita.

Walaupun sudah memiliki Trading Plan /Rules yang sudah kita uji dengan Back Test ataupun Forward Test, sehingga kita putuskan untuk dijalankan dalam Live Trading kita, sering-kali kita tergoda untuk melakukan transaksi di luar kriteria-kriteria dalam Trading Plan tersebut. Godaan itu muncul hanya karena tiba-tiba kita punya pandangan/ feeling/ pendapat tertentu saat memandangi grafik di platform trading. Saya sangat berhati-hati untuk tidak tergoda melakukan keputusan trading di luar Trading Plan saya. Yes, I will only trade my plan, will never trade my view/opinion/feeling.

Cheers 🙂

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Steps to becoming a profitable trader

I found this good article on a trader’s personal website. It is about steps to becoming a profitable trader. It is a good reading. On which step are you now ?

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There are a number of steps to becoming a FOREX trader and they are outlined below. Please take the time to read it because if you are going to succeed it is important that you have your feet firmly on the ground and have some idea of what to expect. The following text is reproduced with the permission of SoulTrader of http://www.simpleforexsystems.com

My experience to date personally and in discussion with other traders confirms its accuracy.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – lets get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven’t got the first clue about what you’re trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you’ll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move.

Step Two – Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader – you don’t have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad – you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you’ll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you’ll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your ‘magic system’ starts today. You’ll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you’ll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You’ll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it’s not you – you’ll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You’ll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars – they cant be making that amount because you’ve studied and you don’t make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they’re in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager – the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you’re stubborn and think that you know best – you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to – but you know better. You’ll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else – they don’t work for you either.

This step can last ages and ages – in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You’ve probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Step 3 – The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it’s not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you’re starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your ‘edge’ shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don’t get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn’t possibly predict it it isn’t your fault – as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing – consistency of your ‘edge’ and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage – risk of account etc etc – and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren’t ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 – Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you’re on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time – day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips – generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You’ll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you’ve given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five – Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking – just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade – you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you. This is trading utopia – you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You’re a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they’re teenagers – some of them will get to where you are – some will do it fast and others will be slower – literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting – in fact it’s probably boring you to bits – like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job – it gets boring – you’re doing your job and that’s that.

You can now say with your head held high “I’m a currency trader”

FACT : 90%+ of traders loose money trading FOREX.

I quote from Dr Alexander Elder’s excellent book, Trading for a Living

“Brokerage records indicate that 90 out of 100 people trading today will probably be gone from the markets a year from now. They will hit rock bottom, crumble and leave. They will try to forget trading as they would a bad dream.”

The £64000 question is : Are you prepared to put in the time and effort necessary to put yourself into the <10% group who make money? There are no shortcuts.

That’s the long and short of it folks (couldn’t resist using that pun!) If I’ve put you off already, excellent. FOREX is not for you and you’ll save yourself money and frustration. If you are still fascinated, on the FOREX Info, FOREX Books and FOREX Tips links, you will find more than enough information and books to set you on the path to success.

I’m no FOREX expert or super trading guru but everything provided on these pages has at different times assisted me on my way. If I haven’t found the material helpful, or well written, it’s not on my page! I wish you every success on your trading adventure.

My philosophy is one of Trader help Trader. Much of what I have learned is by others giving their time and knowledge free of charge. If there is any way whatsoever that you think I can help you, please contact me. However, please do remember :

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Allied Irish Bank

On February 6, 2002, Allied Irish Banks – Ireland’s second-biggest bank – revealed that it was investigating an apparent currency fraud at its Baltimore-based subsidiary, Allfirst, perpetrated by a trader named John Rusnak. It soon became clear that the scale and nature of the losses would make the AIB/Allfirst story one of the biggest ‘rogue trader’ scandals since Nick Leeson brought down Barings bank in 1995.

The AIB board of directors quickly commissioned an independent report into what had gone wrong. Written by Eugene Ludwig, a former US Comptroller of the Currency, the report concluded that Rusnak had systematically falsified bank records and documents, and been able to circumvent the “weak control environment” at Allfirst’s treasury.

Ludwig was given a limited period to carry out enquiries, and his report begins with the caveat: “We have emphasised from the outset that we believed that 30 days was inadequate to render a comprehensive report.” The investigators also had no opportunity to speak with Rusnak and the report does not necessarily reflect Rusnak’s understanding of events. But the report’s central finding was that AIB’s rogue trader had allegedly accrued losses by writing non-existent options and booking the fictitious premiums from them as revenue.

This, the report said, was in turn motivated by Rusnak’s need to recoup money he had lost on a misplaced proprietary trading strategy sometime in 1997. He later compounded the situation by selling a number of real deep-in-the-money options to counterparties for high premiums, racking up huge unrecorded liabilities for the bank. Estimates of the total losses to AIB/Allfirst from the debacle now stand at around $691 million.

While the bank’s solvency was not threatened in the immediate aftermath of the losses’ discovery – the bank was able to absorb the losses by a one-time charge on earnings – the loss was large enough to wipe out 60 per cent of AIB’s 2001 earnings and significantly deplete its capital. No senior AIB official was forced to resign over the affair, but the scandal badly dented the bank’s reputation and those of some senior executives. Many commentators predict that ultimately, the debacle may result in a takeover of the weakened bank by another institution.

The case also led many observers to wonder why, seven years after the collapse of Barings, the risk management lessons of the case were apparently having to be learnt all over again – in particular, the need for robust supervision of trading activity by back-office staff and risk managers, and for parent firms to be intimately aware of what is taking place at overseas units.
Meanwhile, Rusnak – by all accounts an unexceptional individual, living quietly with his family in the suburbs of Baltimore – has joined the likes of Barings’ Nick Leeson and Daiwa’s Toshihide Iguchi in the pantheon of rogue traders. And bank risk managers, who had begun to think of errant traders as a phenomenon of the past, are having to face up to the fact that a new generation of rogues may still be able to evade risk controls, including such industry standards as value-at-risk.

More readings on:
– Lessons Learned
– The Story
– The Aftermath
– Timeline
– Web Resources
Please go to this link.

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Reasons trading is like sex

Found this at samuel’s multiply blog entry.

  1. Some like it long, some like it short.
  2. You can study the market as much as you like, but it all comes down to luck.
  3. Those who talk about it the most, have the least experience.
  4. One simple mistake could lead to 18 unprofitable years.
  5. Some prefer to sit back and watch it grow.
  6. Terms include swing trading, asset turnover, naked call, after hours, insider trading, silent partner, blind entries, 30-day wash rule, straddle, triangles, descending tops, ascending bottoms, pump and dump, partial surrender, stop order, position limit, voluntary liquidation, and explicit interest.
  7. Low confidence can keep you out of the market.
  8. Everyone tends to focus on performance.
  9. Some do it alone, others do it with a group, and some hire professionals.
  10. and the number one reason….Some positions are better than others and the best position is always up for debate!

And remember, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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